September's fire test, and a nickel sector that is slowing down
El Niño peaked in September, and with it the fire season. The burned area so far is well below 2015, but haze crossed borders again and the government is leaning on prosecutions rather than prevention. Expect October numbers to show whether that worked.
In Sulawesi, nickel pig iron output at IMIP has been cut hard as quotas, prices and weaker EV demand squeeze margins. For buyers tracing supply chains, slower growth is a chance to ask harder questions about waste and community impacts.
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About 200,000 ha burned between January and July. Haze has caused tens of thousands of respiratory infections, pushed schools online in Malaysia and reached Manila. The minister says most fires were set deliberately.
Why it matters: Fire liability is now an enforcement story: police have named 89 suspects and six permit holders face severe sanctions.
RKEF lines at the Morowali industrial park began reducing production. The market is waiting on further 2026 mining quota (RKAB) approvals, and a revised ore benchmark formula took effect on 15 September.
Why it matters: Output cuts at Indonesia's largest nickel hub ripple straight into battery and stainless supply chains.
Energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said tendering starts this year. Officials also plan to retire 13 GW of diesel plants and estimate annual savings of around US$4 billion in generation costs.
Why it matters: The headline number is huge; as of early September the regulation to implement it was still being negotiated between ministries.
Responding to Greenpeace, Bahlil Lahadalia said the only active permit belongs to state-owned PT Gag Nikel, which predates his tenure, and that the other permits were revoked in 2025.
Why it matters: Government and NGOs disagree on whether pending applications count as a threat. Watch for any permit decisions on Waigeo.
Speakers from the Moi and other communities described losing forest access. Officials said 12 customary-law communities in Papua have been formally recognised, with dozens of claims still under review.
Why it matters: Recognition of adat forests is the slow legal track running underneath every land conflict in Papua.